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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/20 11:11

   Grain Trade Mixed at Midday

   Mixed trade at midday, with corn at the lows of the day. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is softer with the Dow down 75. The dollar index is 9 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude $1.60 
higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold 
down $6.10.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade still trying to 
confirm a low for the move with little fresh news to entice buyers. Ethanol 
margins remain stable to better with the weekly report edging production 3,000 
barrels per day higher, and stocks dropped 471,000 barrels to the lowest levels 
in almost 3 years. Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far 
with propane shortages still noted, but warmer weather should help through this 
week with midweek rains slowing progress in some areas. South America should 
see areas of improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil with no 
major issues on the horizon for now. On the December contract, support is the 
$3.66 lows from this a.m. along with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.65, with 
resistance the 20-day at $3.79, along with heavily oversold conditions. 


   Soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher with light profit taking vs. recent 
shorts overnight with little fresh news otherwise as harvest winds up and trade 
progress remains stalled. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 
points higher. The ral remains at the lows with planting hitting the 
homestretch in Brazil. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term 
with pockets of firmness showing up at crushers. On the January chart, support 
is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.06, which we are back above with resistance 
well above the market at $9.27 where the 20-day moving average, along with 
oversold conditions.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed with trade trying to build on the strong 
Tuesday finish for the second week in a row. The Chicago/Kansas City December 
spread is 86 cents with choppy action to start the week, Chicago also holding 
an 10 cent premium to Minneapolis. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 57 
cents, pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help 
more if sustained vs. world values this week. Export business will be watched 
with more Mediterranean tenders going out this week. The extended forecast 
hints at some relief for the drier western areas. The December Kansas City 
chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, with resistance the 20-day 
at 4.23 which we need a second close above and then the recent highs at $4.38.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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