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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 04/21 06:11
Cattle Futures May Show Further Weakness
Cattle futures did not find support from the Cattle on Feed report in trade
Monday, as traders were not convinced it was sufficient to support the market.
Hog futures closed mixed as traders were looking for more than just higher cash
and cutouts to indicate longer-term support.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $284.33 +$2.62*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $106.44 +$1.00**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The initial strength in cattle futures waned Monday with contracts posting a
steady decline throughout the day. Traders seem to have looked past the Cattle
on Feed report and are focusing on the cash potential this week. Boxed beef
showed substantial gains, with choice up $2.50 and select up $7.01. This moved
the average choice value $0.05 above select. It is uncertain whether the cattle
futures were influenced by the Justice Department's antitrust division
examining whether large supplies manipulated the market in any way, resulting
in higher beef prices, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
However, the weakness may have been the result of traders being uncertain about
the strength of cash this week and that the market is technically overbought.
Feeder cattle prices have also shown some weakness recently, but that may only
be temporary.
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